Dumaine Investments Weekly Market Update – June 27, 2023
US stocks traded lower over the last week, as the market appears to be in consolidation mode—after a sharp spring rally—with the end of the quarter looming. Indeed, the CBOE VIX index, which tracks stock market volatility and is typically referred to as the market’s fear gauge, is nearing 3 1/2-year lows, suggesting market participants are taking a wait-and-see approach as they digest recent economic data and await second quarter earnings results.
•Tuesday’s batch of economic data—including durable goods orders, new home sales, and the Case-Shiller home price index—were broadly ahead of consensus estimates, confirming that the economy is heating up in certain sectors. New orders for US manufactured durable goods jumped 1.7% month-over-month in May, following an upwardly revised 1.2% rise in April and easily beating market expectations of a 1% decline. This report marks a third straight month of rising orders. Looking forward, all eyes will be on Friday’s reports for month-over-month Core PCE Price Index and personal spending data.
• Central bankers from around the world are gathering in Sintra, Portugal this week to discuss the state of the world economy. So far, they seem to agree that it’s not good. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on Wednesday, while European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde reiterated on Tuesday that the battle with inflation isn’t over. According to Lagarde, the ECB, which has continued to move forward with interest rate hikes, cannot afford to waver.
• Notwithstanding today’s positive economic news, we continue to have significant concern about current market valuations and the potential for a protracted slump. The disparity between YTD market performance and the Fed’s resolute stance to bring inflation down to 2%—as communicated consistently by Chair Powell and other officials—is unsustainable in our view. We believe the sectors of the market that have buoyed this rally, notably technology and communications stocks levered to generative AI, are particularly overplayed and at risk of significant contraction. We’re accordingly maintaining a defensive stance within our equity allocations and in overall portfolio positioning.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on individual financial goals, risk tolerance, and consultation with a qualified financial professional.