• US stocks have traded flat over the past week in an environment of growing uncertainty about the health of the economy and the trajectory of Fed policy. Yesterday’s sharply lower job openings report was followed this morning by additional data suggesting that the economy may be slowing. Nevertheless, another senior Fed official spoke today about the need to raise and maintain rates above 5% in order to bring inflation under control.
• In energy markets, prices have surged in the wake of OPEC’s decision to cut production of crude oil by over one million barrels per day. The move was largely unexpected, and both WTI and Brent benchmark oils have already moved above $80/barrel, thereby further complicating the inflation picture and putting added pressure on consumers.
• Looking forward, attention will be focused on Friday’s jobs report and unemployment data, and perhaps most importantly, March’s inflation data to be released next week. If inflation remains at or above forecasted levels, we believe that it will be very difficult for the Fed to avoid another rate increase at its next meeting.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on individual financial goals, risk tolerance, and consultation with a qualified financial professional.