The current energy bottleneck is not the Strait…   •Crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are back to nearly 80% of pre-war levels, which is very good news. However, it doesn’t fix the biggest problem facing the U.S. oil market: a lack of diesel fuel resulting in sharply higher diesel prices. Strikes and...Read More

Busy News Week Causes Market Volatility…   Last week delivered several market-moving developments for investors, led by Federal Reserve policy, inflation data, technology earnings, and ongoing U.S.–Iran negotiations.   On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced its second interest-rate decision under the leadership of its new Chair, Kevin Warsh. Despite hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Federal Open...Read More

The Final Interest Rate Cut…For Now   The Federal Reserve closed the year with a widely expected third consecutive rate cut, lowering the federal funds target range to 3.50%–3.75%. Markets had effectively priced in the move before the meeting began with interest-rate futures implying roughly a 90% probability of a reduction. In the post meeting...Read More

Fed’s path forward remains uncertain…   With several Fed governor’s sharing their uncertainty about the need for an additional year-end rate cut, and along with Chair Powell’s similar comments recently, the likelihood of a mid-December rate cut now stands at 75%.  Last week the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditure, was released with...Read More