A Crowded Week with High Stakes…   Fed Chair Warsh and the Federal Open Market Committee announce their latest interest rate decision today, Wednesday, at noon with expectations being that no action will be taken, leaving the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00%. The bigger question is what comes next. Only the December meeting remains...Read More

Familiar Risks, Shifting Dynamics… The risks and uncertainties shaping the market remain largely unchanged from last quarter—ongoing conflict in the Middle East, persistent inflation, and the continued Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment tsunami. However, the dynamics surrounding these risks have shifted again. A stalemate continues between U.S. forces and Iran over control of the Strait of...Read More

The current energy bottleneck is not the Strait…   •Crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are back to nearly 80% of pre-war levels, which is very good news. However, it doesn’t fix the biggest problem facing the U.S. oil market: a lack of diesel fuel resulting in sharply higher diesel prices. Strikes and...Read More

  And the Fed raises rates for the first time in more than 3 years amidst surging oil prices…   In a unanimous 12–0 vote last week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, lifting the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. Rates across the yield curve...Read More

With rising tensions comes increased oil prices and Treasury yields…   Three major developments are shaping capital markets this week: renewed escalation in the Middle East, another sharp rise in Treasury yields, and important inflation data ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Over the weekend, Iran launched ballistic missiles at U.S. naval forces, including...Read More

Markets this Week Face a Major Test from Inflation, AI, and the Fed…   This week is providing investors with unusually important insights into inflation, artificial intelligence, monetary policy, and geopolitical risk.   Wednesday began with the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index as core PCE came in as expected...Read More

Busy News Week Causes Market Volatility…   Last week delivered several market-moving developments for investors, led by Federal Reserve policy, inflation data, technology earnings, and ongoing U.S.–Iran negotiations.   On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced its second interest-rate decision under the leadership of its new Chair, Kevin Warsh. Despite hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Federal Open...Read More

The U.S. economy remains resilient…but for how long? In May, a changing of the guard occurred at the U.S. Federal Reserve as Trump appointee Kevin Warsh took the helm as the central bank’s newest Chair. With the president forcefully arguing for lower rates, investors wrongfully expected Warsh to strongly push towards a more dovish interest...Read More

  The All Clear that Isn’t….   The Trump Administration’s insistence that the Iran conflict is effectively resolved is not yet reflected by conditions on the ground. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue to advance, but intermittent strikes on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz keep resetting the confidence those talks are meant to...Read More

Conflict in the Middle East from is far from over…. Optimism surrounding the Middle East ceasefire was tested this week as reports emerged that a U.S. helicopter was struck by Iranian forces. The United States subsequently launched retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets, describing the operation as a lawful act of self-defense. Markets responded predictably with...Read More