HIGHER FOR LONGER, BUT DOES IT MATTER? Stubbornly persistent inflation pressures continued in March, likely derailing the case for the Fed to begin reducing rates in June and also raising questions as to whether rate cuts can be implemented this year without sign of an economic slowdown. The last mile, or in this case, the...Read More

Still trying to figure out inflation……….and the Fed   Based on the CME Fedwatch tool, bond traders are no longer predicting that the Fed will cut interest rates by more than 75 basis points this year – their view finally now moving in line with what has been the central bank’s projected likeliest outcome for months....Read More

Cautionary inflation and consumer readings spread concerns… Following the long weekend, investors returned today staring down earnings from the nation’s biggest retailers and an update on the Federal Reserve’s rate path perspective. Additionally, market star Nvidia (NVDA) shares its latest results on Wednesday afternoon. Last week, however, did close on a down note – ending a...Read More

  Following the Fed’s most recent meeting, the equity markets have continued to rally despite additional commentary from the central bankers emphasizing that rate cuts are very unlikely to start in March. Over the weekend, Chair Powell, in an interview on the TV show 60 Minutes, said that he is “pleased inflation is coming down...Read More

‘VICTORY’ OVER INFLATION OR PREMATURE CELEBRATION? After more than a year of disconnect between bullish broad market sentiment and overtly hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and policy, the December FOMC meeting appears to have been an inflection point in the central bank’s inflationary fight. While Chair Powell and other officials had repeatedly and steadfastly pointed to...Read More

After drifting up the last few days of 2023, Wall Street starts the New Year a bit nervous with broad declines in many securities, especially in those sectors which have recently outperformed. One Schwab analyst suggested that the recent declines broadly reflected a combination of profit-taking and investor rotation into last year’s underperforming sectors, specifically...Read More

Markets take a victory lap after dovish Fed outlook… US stocks surged over the past week in the wake of a December Fed meeting that projected a surprisingly dovish tone with markets concluding the fight against inflation is largely over. While Chair Powell and other officials had repeatedly and steadfastly pointed to the dangers of...Read More

Higher-for-Longer… To date, 2023 has been a year marked by a series of crises and varied uncertainties in both the economy and in the markets. The year started with large-scale tech layoffs and the first quarter closed amidst a banking crisis as several large US banks failed in succession. Concerns about persistently high core inflation...Read More

Dumaine Investments Weekly Market Update – November 1, 2023 – After a brief rally at the start of October, US stocks traded lower over the second half of the month as elevated interest rates, mixed earnings, and heightened tensions in the Middle East took a toll on markets. The S&P 500 posted its worst October...Read More

Dumaine Investments Weekly Market Update – October 24, 2023 • US stocks traded down over the last week amid an environment of rising long-term rates, mixed earnings results, and an escalating conflict in the Middle East. The 10-year Treasury yield almost hit 5.0% Monday before retreating to 4.9% later in the day. On the macroeconomic...Read More