Ever rising Federal debt amidst resilient growth and rising inflation pressures…   Federal finances continue to deteriorate at a historically notable pace. Net U.S. federal debt now exceeds annual GDP for the first time since World War II with little indication of near-term improvement. The government currently spends roughly $1.33 for every dollar of revenue...Read More

Markets Shrug Off Geopolitical and Policy Uncertainty..   The U.S.–Iran ceasefire was extended yesterday, though signals from Iranian leadership remain mixed. Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations indicated a willingness to pursue a more durable agreement, suggesting continued openness to diplomacy. In contrast, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck a more confrontational tone stating that...Read More

An economy with no shortage of story lines…. Few geopolitical developments in recent memory have so directly threatened global energy supply as the recently launched war between Iran and a U.S./Israeli coalition. At its center is the Strait of Hormuz – a 54-mile-long waterway through which roughly one in every five barrels of oil passes...Read More

Fragile Ceasefire, Firm Economy – so far…   After a day marked by escalating rhetoric—most notably threats via social media that the United States would “end civilization” in Iran absent an agreement—President Trump announced late Tuesday that a two-week ceasefire had been reached. As part of the arrangement, Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of...Read More

Both financial markets and the global economy confront a narrowing path due to Iranian war energy disruption…   Fighting in the Middle East continues to escalate with Iranian forces launching attacks on Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. The U.S. administration has increased efforts aimed to de-escalate the war with officials suggesting that recent discussions with...Read More

Energy Tensions and Conflicting Economic Signals Cloud the Near-Term Outlook…   Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have introduced a new source of volatility across global financial markets. The primary concern centers on the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy transit corridors. Iran’s threats to target commercial vessels moving through...Read More

Tariff Escalation, Slowing Growth, and a Higher Risk Backdrop…   Last Friday, in a 6–3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Trump Administration had exceeded its authority in imposing certain tariffs on key trading partners. The decision drew immediate criticism from the president who responded swiftly. Citing the Trade Act of 1974, the...Read More

The Labor Market Stabilizes as Inflation Remains in Focus…   Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported January job growth of 130,000, materially above expectations, while unemployment declined to 4.3%. Hiring remained concentrated in healthcare, continuing a narrow but durable trend that has supported overall payroll expansion throughout 2025. While breadth remains limited, the report...Read More

Rate cuts on Hold Amid Persistent Inflation and Slowing Consumer Momentum…   Chair Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee announced today that they will hold the federal funds rate unchanged, marking the first policy pause since September. The decision follows three consecutive rate cuts, including December’s decrease, which revealed growing internal resistance. Two Fed...Read More

2025’s economy closed out on a strong note….   Despite the steady drumbeat of concerning geopolitical and national emergencies, the U.S. economy demonstrated notable resilience as the year progressed. Real GDP continued to expand with growth accelerating meaningfully as the year closed with 4th quarter growth estimated to have exceeded 5.0%. As a result, and...Read More