Markets Weigh Mixed Inflation Data Amid Trade and Policy Shifts… The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report — the most widely followed gauge of U.S. inflation — showed a mixed picture for July. Headline inflation came in at 2.7% year-over-year, slightly better than the 2.8% economists expected. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy...Read More

  A pivotal week lies ahead for markets and policymakers.   With the Administration’s updated trade deadline fast approaching, the U.S. has secured significant tariff agreements with some of its largest trade partners. Over the weekend, reports confirmed that the U.S. and EU reached a deal mirroring last week’s agreement with Japan. Both agreements establish...Read More

The Trump Administration aggressively pursues its agenda…..   The quarter began with a bang as the incoming Administration rolled out a new U.S tariff structure on April 2nd its so-called “Liberation Day.” Given the unexpected magnitude of the planned tax, the stock market quickly cratered. By April 9, the President instituted a 90-day pause on...Read More

The Pressure for Rate Cuts is Increasing… Despite war raging in the Middle East and Europe, domestic protests across the country, and volatile tariff policies, American markets continue to move higher. The S & P 500 and the Russell 1000 Value indices are now positive on the year with Treasuries continuing to trade in a...Read More

Tariff uncertainty continues to have economic ripple effects… Tariff headlines continue to dominate the news and is strongly influencing not only the US economy but that of the world. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed the drop in GDP for the first quarter of 2025 to an annualized decline of 0.2%, slightly better...Read More

  And another pivot in U.S. tariff policy…   Over the weekend, the United States and China jointly declared a 90-day suspension of their new tariffs of 145% and 125%, respectively. During this interim period, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods will be 30% – a sharply higher amount than two months ago but at a...Read More

The way ahead grows cloudier…   Earlier today, good news was reported as March’s inflation dropped to an annualized rate of 2.3% as measured by the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the PCE Index. The reading slightly missed the expected figure of 2.2% while core inflation met expectations of 2.6%. The signs, for the moment,...Read More

A re-organization of the U.S.’s, and possibly the world’s, economy commences… Having long been dissatisfied with the U.S.’s trade imbalance and foreign trade inequities, President Trump decided to act. On April 2nd, the President’s so-called “Liberation Day” (LD) commenced a radical shift in the U.S.’s economic and trade policy by implementing sweeping changes in U.S....Read More

Tariff uncertainty increases the likelihood of higher for longer… The Fed held its second rate setting meeting of the year last week. To the surprise of no one, the committee held steady on rates and elected to take no action citing economic uncertainty due to tariffs, taxes, immigration, and the many other changes being instituted...Read More

Buckle up, the ride is just getting started… Fears have been growing that the U.S. economy is headed for one of two possible outcomes: stagflation or recession. The Alanta Fed recently forecasted that an economic contraction would take place in the first quarter of 2025 with an annualized GDP decline of 2.8%. President Trump attempted...Read More