Familiar Risks, Shifting Dynamics… The risks and uncertainties shaping the market remain largely unchanged from last quarter—ongoing conflict in the Middle East, persistent inflation, and the continued Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment tsunami. However, the dynamics surrounding these risks have shifted again. A stalemate continues between U.S. forces and Iran over control of the Strait of...Read More

The U.S. economy remains resilient…but for how long? In May, a changing of the guard occurred at the U.S. Federal Reserve as Trump appointee Kevin Warsh took the helm as the central bank’s newest Chair. With the president forcefully arguing for lower rates, investors wrongfully expected Warsh to strongly push towards a more dovish interest...Read More

An economy with no shortage of story lines…. Few geopolitical developments in recent memory have so directly threatened global energy supply as the recently launched war between Iran and a U.S./Israeli coalition. At its center is the Strait of Hormuz – a 54-mile-long waterway through which roughly one in every five barrels of oil passes...Read More

2025’s economy closed out on a strong note….   Despite the steady drumbeat of concerning geopolitical and national emergencies, the U.S. economy demonstrated notable resilience as the year progressed. Real GDP continued to expand with growth accelerating meaningfully as the year closed with 4th quarter growth estimated to have exceeded 5.0%. As a result, and...Read More

An economy that may now be on shaky grounds….   As we near the end of the year, the U.S. economy continues to teeter between resilience and fragility. According to the principal barometer of economic health, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the U.S. appears to be in a solid financial position. While early-year fears surrounding proposed...Read More

  A pivotal week lies ahead for markets and policymakers.   With the Administration’s updated trade deadline fast approaching, the U.S. has secured significant tariff agreements with some of its largest trade partners. Over the weekend, reports confirmed that the U.S. and EU reached a deal mirroring last week’s agreement with Japan. Both agreements establish...Read More

The Trump Administration aggressively pursues its agenda…..   The quarter began with a bang as the incoming Administration rolled out a new U.S tariff structure on April 2nd its so-called “Liberation Day.” Given the unexpected magnitude of the planned tax, the stock market quickly cratered. By April 9, the President instituted a 90-day pause on...Read More

A re-organization of the U.S.’s, and possibly the world’s, economy commences… Having long been dissatisfied with the U.S.’s trade imbalance and foreign trade inequities, President Trump decided to act. On April 2nd, the President’s so-called “Liberation Day” (LD) commenced a radical shift in the U.S.’s economic and trade policy by implementing sweeping changes in U.S....Read More

Definitely higher for longer…. 2024 began with the Federal Reserve signaling the likelihood of shortly commencing interest rate cuts. Most experts were predicting up to two percentage points of cuts for the year with more to follow in the ensuing years. Early volatility in economic data helped define the year with consecutive Consumer Price Index...Read More

The Fed finally start reducing rates…   The long anticipated, and highly debated, initial interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve finally arrived. After the Fed’s mid-September meeting, Chair Jerome Powell announced a 50-basis point rate cut (bps or 0.50 percentage points) – the first rate cut in what is expected to be a succession...Read More