2025’s economy closed out on a strong note….   Despite the steady drumbeat of concerning geopolitical and national emergencies, the U.S. economy demonstrated notable resilience as the year progressed. Real GDP continued to expand with growth accelerating meaningfully as the year closed with 4th quarter growth estimated to have exceeded 5.0%. As a result, and...Read More

An economy that may now be on shaky grounds….   As we near the end of the year, the U.S. economy continues to teeter between resilience and fragility. According to the principal barometer of economic health, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the U.S. appears to be in a solid financial position. While early-year fears surrounding proposed...Read More

  A pivotal week lies ahead for markets and policymakers.   With the Administration’s updated trade deadline fast approaching, the U.S. has secured significant tariff agreements with some of its largest trade partners. Over the weekend, reports confirmed that the U.S. and EU reached a deal mirroring last week’s agreement with Japan. Both agreements establish...Read More

The Trump Administration aggressively pursues its agenda…..   The quarter began with a bang as the incoming Administration rolled out a new U.S tariff structure on April 2nd its so-called “Liberation Day.” Given the unexpected magnitude of the planned tax, the stock market quickly cratered. By April 9, the President instituted a 90-day pause on...Read More

A re-organization of the U.S.’s, and possibly the world’s, economy commences… Having long been dissatisfied with the U.S.’s trade imbalance and foreign trade inequities, President Trump decided to act. On April 2nd, the President’s so-called “Liberation Day” (LD) commenced a radical shift in the U.S.’s economic and trade policy by implementing sweeping changes in U.S....Read More

Definitely higher for longer…. 2024 began with the Federal Reserve signaling the likelihood of shortly commencing interest rate cuts. Most experts were predicting up to two percentage points of cuts for the year with more to follow in the ensuing years. Early volatility in economic data helped define the year with consecutive Consumer Price Index...Read More

The Fed finally start reducing rates…   The long anticipated, and highly debated, initial interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve finally arrived. After the Fed’s mid-September meeting, Chair Jerome Powell announced a 50-basis point rate cut (bps or 0.50 percentage points) – the first rate cut in what is expected to be a succession...Read More

Is it time for the Fed to act? After months of looking for signs that inflation has sufficiently cooled, the Federal Reserve may be on the cusp of finally seeing what it needs to start reducing interest rates. Following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) mid-June meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that the...Read More

HIGHER FOR LONGER, BUT DOES IT MATTER? Stubbornly persistent inflation pressures continued in March, likely derailing the case for the Fed to begin reducing rates in June and also raising questions as to whether rate cuts can be implemented this year without sign of an economic slowdown. The last mile, or in this case, the...Read More

‘VICTORY’ OVER INFLATION OR PREMATURE CELEBRATION? After more than a year of disconnect between bullish broad market sentiment and overtly hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and policy, the December FOMC meeting appears to have been an inflection point in the central bank’s inflationary fight. While Chair Powell and other officials had repeatedly and steadfastly pointed to...Read More