The Trump Administration aggressively pursues its agenda…..   The quarter began with a bang as the incoming Administration rolled out a new U.S tariff structure on April 2nd its so-called “Liberation Day.” Given the unexpected magnitude of the planned tax, the stock market quickly cratered. By April 9, the President instituted a 90-day pause on...Read More

The Pressure for Rate Cuts is Increasing… Despite war raging in the Middle East and Europe, domestic protests across the country, and volatile tariff policies, American markets continue to move higher. The S & P 500 and the Russell 1000 Value indices are now positive on the year with Treasuries continuing to trade in a...Read More

Tariff uncertainty continues to have economic ripple effects… Tariff headlines continue to dominate the news and is strongly influencing not only the US economy but that of the world. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed the drop in GDP for the first quarter of 2025 to an annualized decline of 0.2%, slightly better...Read More

  And another pivot in U.S. tariff policy…   Over the weekend, the United States and China jointly declared a 90-day suspension of their new tariffs of 145% and 125%, respectively. During this interim period, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods will be 30% – a sharply higher amount than two months ago but at a...Read More

The way ahead grows cloudier…   Earlier today, good news was reported as March’s inflation dropped to an annualized rate of 2.3% as measured by the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the PCE Index. The reading slightly missed the expected figure of 2.2% while core inflation met expectations of 2.6%. The signs, for the moment,...Read More

A re-organization of the U.S.’s, and possibly the world’s, economy commences… Having long been dissatisfied with the U.S.’s trade imbalance and foreign trade inequities, President Trump decided to act. On April 2nd, the President’s so-called “Liberation Day” (LD) commenced a radical shift in the U.S.’s economic and trade policy by implementing sweeping changes in U.S....Read More

Tariff uncertainty increases the likelihood of higher for longer… The Fed held its second rate setting meeting of the year last week. To the surprise of no one, the committee held steady on rates and elected to take no action citing economic uncertainty due to tariffs, taxes, immigration, and the many other changes being instituted...Read More

Buckle up, the ride is just getting started… Fears have been growing that the U.S. economy is headed for one of two possible outcomes: stagflation or recession. The Alanta Fed recently forecasted that an economic contraction would take place in the first quarter of 2025 with an annualized GDP decline of 2.8%. President Trump attempted...Read More

And market volatility shows an increase… Markets finished last week in a volatile fashion, erasing most of the week’s gains with all three major indexes closing down at least 1% on Friday. The Dow Jones and S & P 500 both experienced their biggest one day drop this calendar year, with both indexes closing the...Read More

What will move the Fed out of its current wait and see stance? Earlier today, the U.S.’s Bureau of Labor Statistics released hotter than expected CPI data – confirming investors’ anxiety regarding too-hot inflation that is likely to keep the Fed on the sidelines for the immediate future. January’s consumer price index jumped 0.5% for...Read More