2025’s economy closed out on a strong note….   Despite the steady drumbeat of concerning geopolitical and national emergencies, the U.S. economy demonstrated notable resilience as the year progressed. Real GDP continued to expand with growth accelerating meaningfully as the year closed with 4th quarter growth estimated to have exceeded 5.0%. As a result, and...Read More

The Year Begins with Elevated Geopolitical Risk as Markets Confront High Expectations…   The year 2026 opened with an immediate geopolitical shock. Over the weekend, U.S. special forces captured former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, an event that injected fresh volatility into global markets. Energy equities reacted swiftly with oil and gas shares moving higher on...Read More

The Final Interest Rate Cut…For Now   The Federal Reserve closed the year with a widely expected third consecutive rate cut, lowering the federal funds target range to 3.50%–3.75%. Markets had effectively priced in the move before the meeting began with interest-rate futures implying roughly a 90% probability of a reduction. In the post meeting...Read More

AI-Driven Volatility, Softening Labor Trends, and a More Dovish Fed Path…   Investor attention pivoted last week from the Federal government’s reopening to the sudden fragility of the AI-driven stock trade. The core group of mega-cap beneficiaries—Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Google and Tesla—has broadly traded lower this month with Oracle down more than 20%...Read More

Markets Rebound as Government Looks Likely to Reopen…   Equities began the week higher despite ending the prior one on a softer note, supported by optimism that a bipartisan deal to reopen the government was imminent. Late Sunday, eight Democratic senators joined Republicans in approving a short-term funding measure, marking the likely end of the...Read More

Fed continues its rate easing even as elevated inflation persists while data clarity fades… Today’s 25-basis-point rate by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) continued its broader interest rate easing cycle. Given Chair Powell’s post meeting comments, interest rate futures declined appreciably from an 85% probability to a 69% likelihood of another quarter-point rate...Read More

An economy that may now be on shaky grounds….   As we near the end of the year, the U.S. economy continues to teeter between resilience and fragility. According to the principal barometer of economic health, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the U.S. appears to be in a solid financial position. While early-year fears surrounding proposed...Read More

Fed Cuts Rates as Labor Market Risks Mount…   Last week, the Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut of the year, lowering the overnight federal funds rate by 25 basis points. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized in his post-meeting remarks that the decision was not a response to political pressure but rather a reflection of...Read More

Fed Poised for Rate Cut Amid Labor Weakness and Political Pressure…   The FOMC meets next week with expectations firmly set on a rate cut. Markets see a 25-basis point move as the most likely case, but weak labor data has raised the probability of a 50-point cut. Morgan Stanley recently updated its outlook, now...Read More

Markets brace for likely September rate cut as the Fed chair recasts economic risks…   The Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole summit concluded with a notable shift in tone from Chair Powell and his colleagues. Powell emphasized that “the balance of risks appears to be shifting,” suggesting that concerns are no longer concentrated solely on...Read More