Buckle up, the ride is just getting started… Fears have been growing that the U.S. economy is headed for one of two possible outcomes: stagflation or recession. The Alanta Fed recently forecasted that an economic contraction would take place in the first quarter of 2025 with an annualized GDP decline of 2.8%. President Trump attempted...Read More

And market volatility shows an increase… Markets finished last week in a volatile fashion, erasing most of the week’s gains with all three major indexes closing down at least 1% on Friday. The Dow Jones and S & P 500 both experienced their biggest one day drop this calendar year, with both indexes closing the...Read More

What will move the Fed out of its current wait and see stance? Earlier today, the U.S.’s Bureau of Labor Statistics released hotter than expected CPI data – confirming investors’ anxiety regarding too-hot inflation that is likely to keep the Fed on the sidelines for the immediate future. January’s consumer price index jumped 0.5% for...Read More

Fed stands pat to no one’s surprise…. • Fed Chair Powell held his first press conference of 2025 today. To the surprise of no one, the central bank took no action on interest rates. However, what was more important about today’s announcement was the commentary. Powell’s disposition and language favored neither a dovish nor hawkish...Read More

Definitely higher for longer…. 2024 began with the Federal Reserve signaling the likelihood of shortly commencing interest rate cuts. Most experts were predicting up to two percentage points of cuts for the year with more to follow in the ensuing years. Early volatility in economic data helped define the year with consecutive Consumer Price Index...Read More

2024 Year Wrap Up… •U.S. equity markets recorded another banner year and proved their resiliency once again.  Led by the Magnificent 7 tech stocks, the S&P 500 finished the year with a 25% gain as the Russell 1000 Value advanced a robust 14%. The Russell 2000, which focuses on small cap companies and is considered...Read More

After today’s rate cut, is the Fed ready to pause?   Chair Powell and the FOMC had their final meeting of the year today and announced a 0.25 percentage point cut to the overnight borrowing rate. In addition to the rate announcement, Chair Powell provided guidance to the Fed’s interest rate path moving forward. He...Read More

Fed’s path forward remains uncertain…   With several Fed governor’s sharing their uncertainty about the need for an additional year-end rate cut, and along with Chair Powell’s similar comments recently, the likelihood of a mid-December rate cut now stands at 75%.  Last week the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditure, was released with...Read More

Higher for longer after all… Equity markets participants showed their approval of the re-election of President Trump as the markets surged to record highs in the following days.  Further adding to market sentiment was Fed Chair Powell’s announcement of a quarter percentage point cut to the overnight lending rate. Some of the initial post-election market...Read More

Presidential Election & Federal Reserve meeting have market anxious… The Presidential election is finally here, and the race remains a dead heat with pollsters saying the race is a coin toss. Given how close the race is, a winner is not anticipated to be known for days. However, investors have been trying to position their...Read More