The way ahead grows cloudier…   Earlier today, good news was reported as March’s inflation dropped to an annualized rate of 2.3% as measured by the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the PCE Index. The reading slightly missed the expected figure of 2.2% while core inflation met expectations of 2.6%. The signs, for the moment,...Read More

A re-organization of the U.S.’s, and possibly the world’s, economy commences… Having long been dissatisfied with the U.S.’s trade imbalance and foreign trade inequities, President Trump decided to act. On April 2nd, the President’s so-called “Liberation Day” (LD) commenced a radical shift in the U.S.’s economic and trade policy by implementing sweeping changes in U.S....Read More

Tariff uncertainty increases the likelihood of higher for longer… The Fed held its second rate setting meeting of the year last week. To the surprise of no one, the committee held steady on rates and elected to take no action citing economic uncertainty due to tariffs, taxes, immigration, and the many other changes being instituted...Read More

Buckle up, the ride is just getting started… Fears have been growing that the U.S. economy is headed for one of two possible outcomes: stagflation or recession. The Alanta Fed recently forecasted that an economic contraction would take place in the first quarter of 2025 with an annualized GDP decline of 2.8%. President Trump attempted...Read More

And market volatility shows an increase… Markets finished last week in a volatile fashion, erasing most of the week’s gains with all three major indexes closing down at least 1% on Friday. The Dow Jones and S & P 500 both experienced their biggest one day drop this calendar year, with both indexes closing the...Read More

What will move the Fed out of its current wait and see stance? Earlier today, the U.S.’s Bureau of Labor Statistics released hotter than expected CPI data – confirming investors’ anxiety regarding too-hot inflation that is likely to keep the Fed on the sidelines for the immediate future. January’s consumer price index jumped 0.5% for...Read More

Fed stands pat to no one’s surprise…. • Fed Chair Powell held his first press conference of 2025 today. To the surprise of no one, the central bank took no action on interest rates. However, what was more important about today’s announcement was the commentary. Powell’s disposition and language favored neither a dovish nor hawkish...Read More

Definitely higher for longer…. 2024 began with the Federal Reserve signaling the likelihood of shortly commencing interest rate cuts. Most experts were predicting up to two percentage points of cuts for the year with more to follow in the ensuing years. Early volatility in economic data helped define the year with consecutive Consumer Price Index...Read More

2024 Year Wrap Up… •U.S. equity markets recorded another banner year and proved their resiliency once again.  Led by the Magnificent 7 tech stocks, the S&P 500 finished the year with a 25% gain as the Russell 1000 Value advanced a robust 14%. The Russell 2000, which focuses on small cap companies and is considered...Read More

After today’s rate cut, is the Fed ready to pause?   Chair Powell and the FOMC had their final meeting of the year today and announced a 0.25 percentage point cut to the overnight borrowing rate. In addition to the rate announcement, Chair Powell provided guidance to the Fed’s interest rate path moving forward. He...Read More